think climate. think change.
A report for the Australian Greenhouse Office by Dr Catherine Pickering, Roger Good, Dr Ken Green
Australian Greenhouse Office, 2004
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This initial report summarises current knowledge of predicted climate change effects on alpine and subalpine biota, with a focus on Kosciuszko National Park in south-eastern NSW. It outlines some possible scenarios of the impacts and responses of the native flora and fauna, and feral animals and weeds to climate change, particularly responses to the scenarios of increased mean temperatures as a result of global warming.
It is predicted that there will be both negative and positive impacts on the flora, with increases in the occurrence and distribution of several dominant plant communities (tall alpine herbfield, heathland and sod-tussock grassland) and, as a consequence, decreases in the much smaller areas of the more sensitive communities, particularly short alpine herbfield and the groundwater communities (fens, bogs and peatlands) that are of particular significance for catchments.
It is predicted that the impacts of global warming on the native fauna will first be seen in the decreased distribution and abundance of the alpine endemic Mountain Pygmy Possum and the Broad-toothed Rat, both of which have narrow environmental tolerances. The diversity and abundance of birds at a specified altitude may increase with increasing warming. Little or no information is available in the literature on the possible responses of the alpine invertebrate populations and the soil fauna to climate change. These aspects require much research.
Possible interactions between climate change and tourism are likely, including potential synergistic effects on alien plant species resulting in an increased diversity and abundance of weeds, particularly those associated with tourism infrastructure. Increased use of snow manipulation techniques by resorts in response to poor snow years are likely to have negative effects on the vegetation, soils and hydrology of subalpine-alpine areas within ski resorts.
The report outlines two major research projects that have been established to gather information on global warming in the Kosciuszko National Park section of the Australian Alps: first, the quantification of regional climatic changes; and second, the formulation of sound predictions on the degree and extent of impacts on the flora and fauna of predicted or quantified climate changes. These studies are complemented by research work being carried out as part of two worldwide alpine area climate change projects in which the authors are involved: GLORIA (Global Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments) and the Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment (GMBA) program.
