think climate. think change.
Department of Climate Change
Final Report, August 2007
Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office,
Department of the Environment and Water Resources
by BRANZ Limited
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Climate change is likely to affect buildings in a range of ways that have potential implications for both the existing building stock and the design of new buildings. This study is a first step in examining the capacity of Australia’s building stock and building practices to maintain current levels of amenity in the face of a changing climate and the scope to consider changes in building practices to adapt to climate change.
There is now overwhelming evidence that anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gasses is changing the world’s climate. Average global surface temperatures have increased by 0.6°C since 1900 and average surface temperatures in Australia have increased by about 0.7°C over the same period.
The complexity of the climate system and uncertainty about future greenhouse gas emissions make prediction of the future climate impossible. However, projections of future climate change can be made using climate models based on the physics of the climate system together with scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. These are indications of the changes we might expect under different scenarios rather than predictions of what will happen.
Climate projections for Australia point to higher temperatures, rising sea levels and an increase in the frequency or intensity of a number of extreme events. Projections of rainfall are less certain, and trends are expected to be different in different parts of Australia. However, expected increases in evaporation suggest that soils will dry and stream-flow may be reduced even in places where rainfall increases modestly.
This study was based on climate projections for 2030 and 2070 for thirteen locations chosen to span seven of the eight climate zones used by the Australian Building Codes Board. The locations were Darwin and Cairns (zone 1), Brisbane and the Gold Coast (zone 2), Alice Springs (zone 3), Mildura (zone 4), Adelaide, Sydney and Perth (zone 5), Melbourne (zone 6), Hobart and Canberra (zone 7).
