New South Wales

Summary of Projected Impacts
New South Wales is expected to become warmer with more hot days and less cold nights. By 2030 the annual average number of days over 35°C in Sydney could grow from the current 3 to 4-7 days, in Canberra from 5 to 6-12 days and in Cobar from 41 to 45-65 days. Growth in peak summer energy demand is likely, due to air-conditioning use, which may increase the risk of blackouts. Warmer temperatures and population growth are likely to cause a rise in heat-related illness and death for those over 65; increasing in Canberra from the current 14 deaths annually to 37-41 by 2020 and 62-92 by 2050. In Sydney increases are projected in annual deaths from the current 176 to 364-417 by 2020 and 717-1,312 by 2050. Warmer conditions may also help spread vector-borne, water-borne and food-borne disease further south. These health issues could increase pressure on medical and hospital services. Urban water security may be threatened by projected increases in demand and climate-driven reductions in water supply. Little change in annual rainfall and higher evaporation would likely lead to less runoff in rivers in many catchments by 2030. Run-off across the Murray-Darling Basin may decrease 10-25 percent by 2050. More frequent and severe droughts, with greater fire risk, are likely. By 2020 the annual number of days with very high or extreme fire danger could average 13-14 in Richmond (now 11.5), 26-29 in Canberra (now 23) and 53-57 in Wagga Wagga (now 50). By 2020 a 10-40 percent reduction in snow cover is likely with potentially significant consequences for alpine tourism and ecosystems. Some agricultural crops may benefit from higher CO₂ concentrations however protein content is likely to decline. Frost-sensitive crops, such as wheat, may respond well to some warming however more hot days and less rainfall may reduce yields. Adverse effects for agriculture include reduced stone fruit yields in warmer winters, livestock stress and an increased prevalence of plant diseases, weeds and pests. CO₂ benefits experienced by forestry may be offset by a decline in rainfall, more bushfires and changes in pests. Centres dependent upon agriculture and forestry may be adversely affected. Increases in extreme storm events are expected to cause more flash flooding affecting industry and infrastructure, including water, sewerage and stormwater, transport and communications, and may challenge emergency services. In coastal areas infrastructure is vulnerable to sea level rise and inundation.
Brigalow Belt, New South Wales

Summary of Projected Impacts

New South Wales is expected to become warmer with more hot days and less cold nights.
By 2030 the annual average number of days over 35°C in Sydney could grow from the current 3 to 4-7 days, in Canberra from 5 to 6-12 days and in Cobar from 41 to 45-65 days.
Growth in peak summer energy demand is likely, due to air-conditioning use, which may increase the risk of blackouts.
Warmer temperatures and population growth are likely to cause a rise in heat-related illness and death for those over 65; increasing in Canberra from the current 14 deaths annually to 37-41 by 2020 and 62-92 by 2050. In Sydney increases are projected in annual deaths from the current 176 to 364-417 by 2020 and 717-1,312 by 2050.
Warmer conditions may also help spread vector-borne, water-borne and food-borne disease further south. These health issues could increase pressure on medical and hospital services.
Urban water security may be threatened by projected increases in demand and climate-driven reductions in water supply.
Little change in annual rainfall and higher evaporation would likely lead to less runoff in rivers in many catchments by 2030. Run-off across the Murray-Darling Basin may decrease 10-25 percent by 2050.
More frequent and severe droughts, with greater fire risk, are likely.
By 2020 the annual number of days with very high or extreme fire danger could average 13-14 in Richmond (now 11.5), 26-29 in Canberra (now 23) and 53-57 in Wagga Wagga (now 50).
By 2020 a 10-40 percent reduction in snow cover is likely with potentially significant consequences for alpine tourism and ecosystems.
Some agricultural crops may benefit from higher CO₂ concentrations however protein content is likely to decline.
Frost-sensitive crops, such as wheat, may respond well to some warming however more hot days and less rainfall may reduce yields.
Adverse effects for agriculture include reduced stone fruit yields in warmer winters, livestock stress and an increased prevalence of plant diseases, weeds and pests.
CO₂ benefits experienced by forestry may be offset by a decline in rainfall, more bushfires and changes in pests. Centres dependent upon agriculture and forestry may be adversely affected.
Increases in extreme storm events are expected to cause more flash flooding affecting industry and infrastructure, including water, sewerage and stormwater, transport and communications, and may challenge emergency services.
In coastal areas infrastructure is vulnerable to sea level rise and inundation.

Brigalow Belt, New South Wales

Photographs: IBRA Regions

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New South Wales