Tasmania

Summary of Projected Impacts
Tasmania is expected to become warmer with more hot days and less cold nights. Growth in peak summer energy demand is likely, due to air-conditioning use, which may increase the risk of blackouts. By 2030 the annual average number of days over 35°C in Hobart could grow from the current 1 to 1-2 days, while in Launceston the annual average number of cold days below 0°C could fall from 35 to 16-30 days. Warmer temperatures and population growth are likely to cause a rise in heat-related illness and death for those over 65; increasing in Hobart from the current 5 annual deaths to 8 by 2020 and 10-14 by 2050. Warmer conditions may also help spread vector-borne, water-borne and food-borne disease further south. These health issues could increase pressure on medical and hospital services. Urban water security may be threatened by increases in demand and climate-driven reductions in water supply. An increase in annual rainfall combined with higher evaporation leads to uncertain effects on run-off into rivers by 2030. By 2020 a 10-40 percent reduction in snow cover is likely with potentially significant consequences for alpine tourism and ecosystems. Fire risk is unlikely to change in Hobart but, by 2020, the average number of days with very high or extreme fire danger in Launceston could increase slightly from the current 1.5 to 1.5-1.9 days and to 1.6-3.1 by 2050. Increases in extreme storm events are expected to cause more flash flooding affecting industry and infrastructure, including water, sewerage and stormwater, transport and communications, and may challenge emergency services. In low-lying coastal areas infrastructure is vulnerable to sea level rise and inundation. Some agricultural crops may benefit from higher CO₂ concentrations however protein content is likely to decline. Frost-sensitive crops may respond well to some warming however more hot days and less rainfall may reduce yields. Adverse effects for agriculture include reduced stone fruit yields in warmer winters, livestock stress and an increased prevalence of plant diseases, weeds and pests. CO₂ benefits experienced by forestry may be offset by a decline in rainfall, more bushfires and changes in pests. Centres dependent upon agriculture and forestry may be adversely affected.
Woolnorth, Tasmania

Summary of Projected Impacts

Tasmania is expected to become warmer with more hot days and less cold nights.
Growth in peak summer energy demand is likely, due to air-conditioning use, which may increase the risk of blackouts.
By 2030 the annual average number of days over 35°C in Hobart could grow from the current 1 to 1-2 days, while in Launceston the annual average number of cold days below 0°C could fall from 35 to 16-30 days.
Warmer temperatures and population growth are likely to cause a rise in heat-related illness and death for those over 65; increasing in Hobart from the current 5 annual deaths to 8 by 2020 and 10-14 by 2050.
Warmer conditions may also help spread vector-borne, water-borne and food-borne disease further south. These health issues could increase pressure on medical and hospital services. Urban water security may be threatened by increases in demand and climate-driven reductions in water supply.
An increase in annual rainfall combined with higher evaporation leads to uncertain effects on run-off into rivers by 2030.
By 2020 a 10-40 percent reduction in snow cover is likely with potentially significant consequences for alpine tourism and ecosystems.
Fire risk is unlikely to change in Hobart but, by 2020, the average number of days with very high or extreme fire danger in Launceston could increase slightly from the current 1.5 to 1.5-1.9 days and to 1.6-3.1 by 2050.
Increases in extreme storm events are expected to cause more flash flooding affecting industry and infrastructure, including water, sewerage and stormwater, transport and communications, and may challenge emergency services. In low-lying coastal areas infrastructure is vulnerable to sea level rise and inundation.
Some agricultural crops may benefit from higher CO₂ concentrations however protein content is likely to decline.
Frost-sensitive crops may respond well to some warming however more hot days and less rainfall may reduce yields.
Adverse effects for agriculture include reduced stone fruit yields in warmer winters, livestock stress and an increased prevalence of plant diseases, weeds and pests.
CO₂ benefits experienced by forestry may be offset by a decline in rainfall, more bushfires and changes in pests.
Centres dependent upon agriculture and forestry may be adversely affected.

Woolnorth, Tasmania

Photographs: IBRA Regions

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Tasmania