Modelling carbon stocks and flows
Overview
Land use change emissions of greenhouse gases are affected by changing land use, land management and climate over space and time. The National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) uses the FullCAM model to integrate data on land cover change, land use and management, climate, plant productivity and soil carbon at a 25m resolution over a thirty year period. The result is a dynamic account of the changing stock of carbon in Australia's land systems since 1970.
FullCAM - a full carbon accounting model
FullCAM integrates a suite of component models to calculate carbon flows associated with all biomass, litter and soil pools in forest and agricultural systems:
- forests - carbon in trees, debris, mulch, soils and products, and the carbon exchanged with the atmosphere, for several hundred years through thinnings, multiple rotations and fires
- agricultural cropping or grazing systems - carbon in the plants, debris, mulch, soil and products, and the carbon exchanged with the atmosphere, while including the effects of harvest, ploughing, fire, herbicides and grazing
- afforestation and reforestation systems - modelled as transitions from agricultural systems to forests
- deforestation systems - modelled as transitions from forests to agricultural systems
- corresponding nitrogen flows, including the effect of nitrogen shortages on plant growth.
The use of component models allowed for highly specific and cost effective model calibration and verification. Component models were selected on the basis of relevance to Australian conditions and availability of data. They are:
- CAMFor - forest systems
- CAMAg - cropping and grazing systems
- 3PG - forest growth
- GENDEC - microbial decomposition
- RothC - agricultural soil carbon.
All component models were adapted for use within FullCAM at a fine spatial (25m) and temporal (monthly) resolution for the Australian continent. The diagram below shows how the component models are integrated into FullCAM.
Model development and implementation
Implementation focussed development of a framework that would integrate existing models, and adaptation/development of specific model components calibrated with Australian data wherever possible:
- Growth model (3PG) - the 3PG physiological growth model was further developed and integrated into the FullCAM model framework
- Wood products model - initially developed for the NCAS (as detailed in Technical Report 8) - has been re-engineered and populated with the available forest product statistics (1944-2000) compiled by the Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics
- Decomposition model (GENDEC) - the GENDEC decomposition model (Daryl Moorhead, University of Toledo), was also initially translated into an Excel system. This facilitated its integration into the FullCAM model
- Soil carbon:
- the Rothamsted Soil Carbon (RothC) Model was calibrated for Australian conditions and incorporated into the FullCAM model framework
Rothamsted web site: www.rothamsted.bbsrc.ac.uk/aen/carbon/rothc.htm - forest soils - modelling change following afforestation or reforestation using preliminary GRC3 and sensitivity analyses
- the Rothamsted Soil Carbon (RothC) Model was calibrated for Australian conditions and incorporated into the FullCAM model framework
- Importance and sensitivity analysis:
- a Geographic Information System which includes continental coverage of vegetation type, soils, digital elevation, location of available soils data and the land cover change analyses provides an integrated framework within which the importance of data weaknesses and priority for improvement can be assessed
- models have been supplemented with a capacity for Monte Carlo and sensitivity analysis using the @Risk software
- Carbon model - development, calibration and implementation of the FullCAM carbon accounting model to achieve NCAS objectives and to estimate greenhouse gas emissions from land use change in Australia.
Analysis and integration
Data on land cover change, land use and management, climate and soils data are integrated in the FullCAM modelling framework to provide a 30-year dynamic perspective on the nature and extent of change in land systems across the continent over the period since 1970.
- Analytical methods and supplement (these link directly to bookmarks within a pdf document)
- FullCAM model
- Latest results
Technical reports
- Calibration of the FullCAM Model to Eucalyptus globulus and Pinus radiata and Uncertainty Analysis - TR 41, 2004
- Modelling Change in Litter and Soil Carbon Following Afforestation or Reforestation: Calibration of the FullCAM 'Beta' Model - TR 40, 2004
- Sensitivity Analysis of the RothC Soil Carbon Model (Ver. 26.3 Excel ©) - TR 30, 2002
- Modelling change in soil carbon following afforestation or reforestation: Preliminary simulations using GRC3, and sensitivity analysis - TR 29, 2002
- FullCAM Carbon Accounting Model: Development, Calibration and Implementation for the National Carbon Accounting System - TR 28, 2001
- CAMFor Users Manual - TR 26, 2000
CAMFor
CAMFor is an Excel-based precursor to the CAMFor component of the fullCAM model. It will be superceded in the near future by a public release of the FullCAM model.
The CAMFor stand-level carbon accounting tool has been developed to include a landscape/estate scale module. The model has been evaluated externally, including at the IEA Task 25 Modelling Workshop (Zagreb) in March 2000. [AGO]
- CAMFor User Manual - Technical Report No. 26
- CAMFor Poster (PDF)
- CAMFor Powerpoint presentation (PPT 4.3 MB)
Download CAMFor
IMPORTANT: You must read and agree to the licence conditions before using the associated CAMFor models. If you would like to be notified of model updates please send an email to ncas@climatechange.gov.au.
- Licence Agreement
- Please save the following files to your hard disk before using:
- CAMFor336.xls (Excel, 2795 KB)
- CAMForEstate335.xls (Excel, 918 KB)
