Modelling Change in Soil Carbon Following Afforestation or Reforestation: Preliminary Simulations Using GRC3 and Sensitivity Analyses

National Carbon Accounting System - Technical Report No. 29

Keryn Paul, Phil Polglase, Nicholas Coops, Tony O'Connell, Tim Grove, Daniel Mendham, Clive Carlyle, Barrie May, Philip Smethurst and Craig Baillie, April 2002

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Abstract

This report provides preliminary estimation of change in soil C following afforestation using the full suite of submodels available in GRC3. The main objectives were to:

calibrate the model as far as possible to accumulation of C in plantations across Australia,and then predict change in soil C;
identify the main factors causing change in soil C; and
undertake a sensitivity analysis of processes, inputs and parameters used in the model.

These exercises were used to determine, within the constraints imposed by available data, which aspects of the model are currently performing well and in which areas improved calibrations or model development could be useful. They were also used to identify the processes that most affect predicted change in soil C and hence will need particular attention in subsequent work.